Global orbital launch attempts per year, 1957–2026. Watch the Cold War surge, the post-Soviet dip, and the explosive commercial takeoff after 2020.
The modern reliability index scores 2000–2026 providers across five weighted dimensions summing to 100. Historic eras are presented for context using each program's own documented record.
In plain terms: most of the score (40 of 100 points) is simply how reliably the rocket delivers its payload — adjusted so a long, proven track record counts for more than a handful of flights (that's what "Wilson-weighted" means: small samples are pulled toward caution until a provider proves itself over many launches). The other 60 points reflect how a provider flies: what happens to spent boosters, how openly it reports problems, how often and how capably it launches, and whether its recent record is improving or slipping.
Adjusted success rate × 40, Wilson-weighted (95% CI) so volume matters. Includes partials + China opacity estimate.
Reuse & recovery, ocean vs. inland disposal, toxic-propellant debris on populated land.
Disclosure speed & honesty, debris-data sharing, reporting accuracy.
Launch frequency, manifest reliability, payload-class range.
Accelerating, steady, or declining over the recent 18 months.
The five dimensions add up to a 0–100 score, which maps to the plain-language rating shown in the table: